K ♠ · Strategy · Draft

Futarchy

Vote on what you want, then let a prediction market decide which proposal gets you there.

The Futarchy card: K ♠ of Strategy

How it works

The DAO first agrees on a measure of success, often the price of its own token. For each proposal, two markets open: one that pays out if the proposal passes, one if it fails. Traders buy and sell in both, betting on how the measure will move under each outcome. After a set time, the DAO compares the two prices. If the pass market predicts a better outcome, the proposal passes and the fail market's trades are reversed. Traders profit when they forecast well, so the price reflects informed belief rather than headcount.

Use it when

  • You have a clear, measurable goal and want decisions judged by results, not popularity.
  • Let people with real information profit from sharing it through trades.

Watch out for

  • A single metric, like token price, ignores everything the DAO values that price cannot capture.
  • Thin markets let a rich trader push the price and buy the decision.

Example

MetaDAO. MetaDAO on Solana has settled its proposals since late 2023 by comparing its token's price in a pass market against a fail market.

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